NDIA Board releases Annual Financial Sustainability Report

The National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) Board today released the 2021 NDIS Annual Financial Sustainability Report (AFSR), which provides a comprehensive financial picture of the NDIS based on the Scheme Actuary’s projections.

The AFSR uses historic experience to inform forward-looking assumptions as to participant numbers, exit rates, and growth in spend per participant. It also contains detailed commentary on Scheme risks, while providing a range of scenarios on possible financial outcomes.

The AFSR has been independently peer-reviewed by the Australian Government Actuary, Mr Guy Thorburn, with his report also released today.

NDIA CEO, Martin Hoffman, said the release of the report reflects the Agency’s commitment to NDIS participants, the disability sector and State and Territory governments to transparency in relation to the Scheme’s financial trajectory.

“The sustainability of the Scheme continues to be a crucial issue, and it is important that these projections are made available,” Mr Hoffman said.

“In July this year, the Board released an interim AFSR which showed the Scheme’s rapid growth.

“Today we publish on our website the latest full report so participants, their families and carers and the wider disability sector have a comprehensive picture in relation to the NDIS’s projected financial evolution. 

“We want stakeholders to be invested in the NDIS and its success given the significant role it plays in the lives of hundreds of thousands of Australians.”

The key AFSR projections include the following:

  • 670,400 participants are estimated to be in the Scheme by end June 2025, and 859,300 by end June 2030.
  • On an accrual basis, total participant costs are estimated to be $29.2 billion in 2021-22, growing to $41.4 billion in 2024-25, and $59.3 billion in 2029-30.

“We know the NDIS is growing at a rapid rate, with the numbers in this report being significantly higher than those estimated by the Productivity Commission in 2017,” Mr Hoffman said.

“This report includes recommendations intended to assist with the Scheme’s long-term sustainability, as required by the NDIS Act. 

“The Agency is working with participants and other members of the disability community on a genuine co-design process to build a stronger and better NDIS.

“We will continue to work with the NDIS community to help ensure the Scheme is improving the lives of Australians with disability not just in the coming years, but for generations to come.”

Read the full report.